Tayap Erdogan to win the Turkish presidential elections: Polls

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Different survey companies asked people about the upcoming elections in different parts of Turkey. Some polls suggested Erdogan would need a second round to be re-elected as the president, while some polls showed he would win in the first leg.

A Turkish election official counts ballots shortly after the polling stations closed at the end of election day, in Istanbul, Sunday, November 1, 2015.
A Turkish election official counts ballots shortly after the polling stations closed at the end of election day, in Istanbul, Sunday, November 1, 2015. (AP)

With less than two weeks until Turkish nationals head to the polls, pollsters have started to release their predictions.

To win in the first round, a presidential candidate needs more than 50 percent of the votes.

Amongst the six candidates competing, some polls indicate Erdogan will win the first round, while some others say Erdogan is likely to be re-elected as the president of Turkey in a second round.

If none of the candidates can pass the 50 percent threshold, the second round will take place on July 8.

We take a look at what credible  pollsters have to say about the June 24 elections.

A survey of 3,000 respondents in 26 of Turkey’s 81 provinces showed Erdogan might receive 48.3 percent of votes in the first round, with the main opposition party candidate, Muharrem Ince, receiving 31.4 percent. The poll was conducted between May 29 and June 3.

Sonar, one of the leading survey companies who gave close predictions in the previous elections, said a second round would take a place, and if that happens more than 53 percent of respondents said they would vote for Erdogan against Ince.

In the parliamentary vote, the AK Party is forecasted to win 42.2 percent of the vote with its ally, the nationalist MHP, expected to garner 7.1 percent of votes, taking the tally of the alliance to 49.3 percent in total.

Ten political parties are running in Turkey’s parliamentary elections, seven of them set up two electoral alliances, following Turkish parliament’s vote to change the electoral system in March, allowing political parties to form alliances.

The AK Party has set up an electoral alliance with the MHP and the BBP. Both parties, as well as the HUDA PAR, support Erdogan for the presidency.

And the main opposition CHP (Republican People’s Party) formed an alliance with the Saadet (Felicity) Party, the Iyi (Good) Party and the Demokrat Party (DP).

The CHP has nominated its MP Muharrem Ince as its presidential candidate, as the SP and Iyi Party nominated their own presidential candidates.

Image shows the forecast for the upcoming elections in Turkey based on a poll conducted by the Sonar survey company.
Image shows the forecast for the upcoming elections in Turkey based on a poll conducted by the Sonar survey company. (TRTWorld)

Sonar’s survey showed their alliance bagging 39.5 percent  of the vote with CHP getting 28.2 percent, Iyi Party 9.2 percent, and SP only 2.1 percent of the votes.

The Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) – whose members, including two former co-chairs, have been jailed for alleged links to terrorism – was seen earning exactly 10 percent, the threshold needed to enter the parliament.

All the political parties running independently or as part of an alliance should get at least 10 percent of the votes to send MPs to the parliament, according to the threshold rule of Turkey’s electoral system.

The HDP’s performance in the parliamentary polls is important because it is not included in any of the alliances.

Therefore, if it fails to pass the threshold, the party who gets the most of the votes where HDP is strong will have all the seats from that constituency.

That would most likely benefit the AK Party, which is also strong in the constituencies where HDP has most of its supporters.

Image shows predictions for the upcoming June 24 elections in Turkey by Konda survey services.
Image shows predictions for the upcoming June 24 elections in Turkey by Konda survey services. (TRTWorld)

A survey by KONDA, another pollster that has had a successful track record, suggests that Erdogan would get 51.4 percent of votes in the presidential race and there would be no second run.

Other candidates’ projections were: Ince 23.9 percent, Aksener 12.30 percent, and Demirtas 9.6 percent.

SP’s Temel Karamollaoglu stands at 2.2 percent in the survey, while Dogu Perincek has 0.6 percent.

In the race for parliament, the AK Party is seen earning 45 percent of votes, while the CHP is seen securing 23.5 percent.

And predictions for the alliances say that the AK Party’s alliance with the MHP and BBP stands at 54 percent, and the CHP’s alliance with three other small parties is at 31.5 percent.

Image shows predictions made by MAK for the upcoming general and presidential elections to be held in Turkey on June 24.
Image shows predictions made by MAK for the upcoming general and presidential elections to be held in Turkey on June 24. (TRTWorld)

MAK, another survey company, said Erdogan is seen securing the presidency in the first round of the election with 51.5 percent votes. The closest rival to Erdogan was Muharrem Ince, who was seen getting 24.4 percent of votes followed by Meral Aksener with 12.5 percent.

HDP’s Demirtas is expected to win 8.8 percent of the vote, according to MAK’s survey, which also indicated Karamollaoglu would receive only 2.2 percent.

For the parliamentary elections, the AK Party was seen dominating polls with 43.5 percent of total votes followed by the CHP who stood at 24.2 percent.

The newly established Iyi Party of Meral Aksener was seen breaking the threshold with 10.3 percent of votes, while the HDP stayed behind with 9.2 percent.

Karamollaoglu’s SP is forecasted to receive only 2.2 percent on MAK’s survey.

Election forecasts presented by Gezici survey.
Election forecasts presented by Gezici survey. (TRTWorld)

There are also conflicting surveys, like that of the Gezici survey company, which said Meral Aksener would come second in the presidential election, surpassing the CHP’s Ince.

Gezici said there would be a second round in the presidential election as Erdogan would get 46 percent while Aksener gets 26 percent, and Ince 19 percent.

HDP’s Demirtas, on the other hand, would receive nine percent, giving no chance to SP’s Karamollaoglu.

In terms of the parliamentary election, the alliance of the AK Party and the MHP would receive 50.7 percent of the votes, while the Iyi Party was seen at 19.4 percent.

The CHP was seen receiving 18.5 percent, losing the main opposition title.

According to the Gezici survey, HDP would pass above the threshold with a 10.6 votes, while the SP was seen securing only 1.3 percent of the votes.

Survey companies said they would announce the latest and detailed version of their survey four days before the elections are held.

Turkey is switching from a parliamentary system to an executive presidential system after a narrowly approved referendum last year, in the wake of a 2016 coup attempt. The changes will come into effect with the next elections, which had originally been set for November 2019.

Under the constitutional reform, the number of lawmakers in the parliament will rise to 600 from 550, the presidential and the parliamentary elections will be held every five years, and the elected president will not be bound to cut ties with his or her party.

Here’s a look at the previous election results in Turkey:

Image shows results of Turkey's 2014 presidential election.
Image shows results of Turkey’s 2014 presidential election. (TRTWorld)
Image shows the results of Turkey's June 2015 parliamentary election.
Image shows the results of Turkey’s June 2015 parliamentary election. (TRTWorld)
Image shows results of Turkey's snap polls held in November 2015.
Image shows results of Turkey’s snap polls held in November 2015. (TRTWorld)
Source: TRTWorld and agencies
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